Kharg island

2026-03-15

I have a short term prediction in the Iran conflict.

The US sent a group of marines towards Iran which has raised eyebrows. The US also struck over 90 Iranian targets on Kharg island.

I think the US is planning on taking the island. This fits nicely for a few reasons. First it seems that many of the attacks against the straits have come from there and securing the strait is of utmost importance More importantly, the combined force is still hoping for regime change and so it doesn't want to destroy Iran's economic future as evidenced by the American reaction to Israeli strikes on Iranian oil fuel depots. However Trump has threatened to escalate to attacks against Iranian energy if Iran does "anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz". Taking and holding the island with marines enables him to do both - escalate, take Iran's oil, while saving the infrastructure for the future.

~30% by the end of the week